May 3, 2011
Elizabeth May won her seat in Saanich and the Islands. It was a decisive win. It proved that Greens can win under First Past the Post (FPTP). It demonstrated that winning is about doing the basics well. The Green Party of Canada developed a strategic plan and implemented it. And, it was based in making FPTP work in our favour, just as Carolyn Lucas did in England.
FPTP is an archaic system – we all know that. Most modern democracies abandoned it over one hundred years ago. Even pseudo democracies use voting systems where every vote counts – either some form of proportional representation or a system that demands a candidate get at least 50% plus one of the popular vote rather than a simple plurality.
In England, Carolyn Lucas won with 31% of the vote on a five way split. Elizabeth won with 46% of the vote. She won thanks in part to traditional NDP and Liberal supporters who knew it was a two-way race and voted for Elizabeth because she was the only person able to beat Conservative incumbent Gary Lunn.
The Green Party of Canada took no chances, however. They knew that Elizabeth’s popularity increased her ability to garner support across the political spectrum (even many conservatives supported her). But that wasn’t going to win. Instead, the party put together an actual, on-the-ground, grassroots campaign.
It was the kind of old fashioned campaign the traditional parties used to run in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. Door to door, personal contact, relationship-based campaigning over and over for the better part of two years. And it was a get out the vote campaign. By campaign day, they had a database of 25,000 names with phone numbers, 20,000 strong or weak Green supporters and 5,000 people who were undecided. During voting day, all 25,000 were called.
Winning takes that kind of dedication, hard work, strategic thinking and political tactics.
The euphoria brought on by Elizabeth’s win was countered by the distress of a Harper majority. I’ve been trying to come to terms with this dreaded outcome most of the day. Here’s the best I can do at the moment.
- We will have at least four years without constant and chronic campaigning which sucks the life out of political parties and that alienates Canadians;
- We’ll have a welcome break from the terrible, US style attack ads the Conservatives have perfected;
- The Conservatives will either demonstrate that they are exactly what we fear which should lead to their permanent demise in four years as happened with the Mulroney Conservatives;
- Or, however unlikely it seems, they will moderate themselves and become more like the rest of Canadians;
- Maybe, just maybe, the Greens, Liberals and NDP will find a way to create a proportional result by campaigning as a coalition next time and then committing to proportional representation for the subsequent election. They all have smart people. They could figure it out for the good of Canada;
- The financial costs the Conservatives are committed to include massive prisons and expanded prison populations; fighter jets we don’t need and are going to be way over budget; military spending and wars we can ill afford; etc. I’m pretty sure these massive expenditures will bankrupt Canada. Maybe that will stop them.
The other potential savior for Canada is the unpredictable influence of the planet. We know that climate instability is increasingly evident. Couple this with food and fuel price increases and the punitive inclinations of the Harper government might have to be held in check.
Only time will let us see the future.
I trust Elizabeth. She will be a force to be reckoned with in the House of Commons. At best, she will be an individual force for change. At worst, she will let the people of Canada know exactly what the Conservatives are up to. Either way, Canada wins.
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